The Next Potential Pandemic - Global Leaders Convene To Address Threat Of "Disease X"
Science/Medical/Technology
Wednesday 17th, January 2024
World leaders are meeting this week in Switzerland, over concerns about an impending global health crisis known as "Disease X" which are taking centre stage. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued a stark warning, suggesting that this hypothetical, currently unknown pathogen could surpass the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, potentially claiming 20 times more lives.
Former chair of the UK vaccine taskforce, Kate Bingham, has expressed that the world may look back at the Covid-19 pandemic as a mere "walk in the park" in comparison to the potential severity of Disease X. Bingham highlighted the infectiousness and fatality rate of Disease X, likening it to being as infectious as measles with a fatality rate comparable to Ebola (67%).
The WHO has compiled a list of nine "priority pathogens" that pose the greatest public health risk due to their epidemic potential. Disease X was added to this list in 2018. While the exact nature of Disease X remains uncertain, scientists have pointed to bird flu as a likely contender for triggering the next human pandemic.
The nine known pathogens that global public health officials are keeping a vigilant eye on include:
Each of these pathogens presents unique challenges, with varying modes of transmission, symptoms, and fatality rates. The global community is grappling with the need for enhanced preparedness and collaborative efforts to mitigate the potential impact of Disease X or any other emerging infectious threat.
The WHO is expected to release an updated threat list in the first half of 2024, reflecting the ongoing commitment to monitoring and addressing emerging infectious diseases. As the world remains on high alert, health officials are emphasising the importance of immediate action, including financial investments, to prepare for and combat the next potential pandemic. The global community must unite in proactive measures to ensure a swift and effective response to any emerging health crisis.
1. Ebola and Marburg
Ebola and Marburg are severe and highly infectious viruses that come from bats and kill many they infect.
There have been several large outbreaks of both bugs in Africa over the last few years.
Both begin abruptly, with high fever and a severe headache.
Many patients develop severe haemorrhagic symptoms, including bleeding from bodily orifices, like the eyes, ears or internal organs.
On average, Ebola kills about 50 per cent of those it sickens, though case fatality rates have ranged from 25 per cent to 90 per cent, according to the WHO.
Marburg also kills around 50 per cent of those it infects, though case fatality rates range from around 24 per cent to 88 per cent, experts say.
People can get infected with Ebola or Marburg viruses if they touch or handle items that have been in contact with an infected person.
2. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a deadly tick-borne virus, endemic in places with warmer climates, such as Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East and Asia.
The disease, which is spread by ticks, kills up to 40 per cent of those who catch it, according to the WHO.
CCHF symptoms include fever, muscle ache, dizziness, light sensitivity and vomiting, and it can lead to organ failure and internal bleeding.
Scientists fear the disease could expand out of its usual territories and move towards Britain and France due to global warming.
3. Lassa fever
Lassa fever is an acute viral haemorrhagic illness which can lead to internal bleeding and affect multiple organ systems.
People usually contract the bug by being exposed to food or items covered in rat urine or faeces.
But it can also be spread through infected bodily fluids.
The virus - in the same family as Ebola, but not as deadly or infectious - has become endemic in a number of West African countries.
Most people with Lassa Fever make a full recovery, but some people can get severely ill.
Some people can experience a fever, physical fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, headaches, abdominal pains or sore throat.
It originated in the town of Lassa, northern Nigeria, which is its' namesake.
4. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory caused by the coronavirus, which also caused Covid-19.
Like other respiratory bugs such as flu and the common cold, SARS affects the airways in the lungs.
Symptoms can include a headache, body aches, mild respiratory symptoms, possible diarrhoea, an eventual dry cough, and pneumonia in most.
It's passed on through respiratory droplets produced when a person with the virus coughs or sneezes, or by contact with objects or surfaces containing the virus.
SARS showed how quickly infection can spread during its first reported outbreak in Asia in February 2003.
Over the next few months, the illness reached more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.
A total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick, and of these, 774 died.
Scientists say it is highly likely that the virus jumped from bats to cat-like civets before infecting humans.
A spillover could happen again.
5. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS)
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS), is a virus transmitted to humans via camels, hence the nickname, camel flu.
Most cases are reported in the Arabic world, but some have been discovered elsewhere - including one in the UK in 2018.
Its symptoms can range from mild to severe, including fever, cough, pneumonia and gastrointestinal issues.
The bugs kills about a third (35 per cent) of those infected, according to the WHO.
MERS was first identified by scientists in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and has since resulted in over 2,605 infections and 936 deaths.
6. Covid (SARS-CoV-2)
Coronavirus disease, or Covid-19, is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The first known case was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
The disease quickly spread worldwide, resulting in the Covid -9 pandemic, which led to at least seven million known deaths.
While the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) status was dropped in May 2023, WHO could always reinstate it if a new, more dangerous variant emerged.
Experts have recently warned the most recent variant, JN.1 could be the "biggest yet" due to several new mutations which make it better at spreading.
Most people infected with the virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness, much like flu or the common cold, and recover without requiring special treatment.
However, some will become seriously ill and require medical attention.
7. Nipah
Experts have warned that Nipah, a virus that spreads from fruit bats or livestock, could also be the next pandemic.
The bug inspired the blockbuster film Contagion about a global pandemic.
It attacks the brain, causing it to swell and has a fatality rate up to 75 per cent.
Of those who survive it, around 20 per cent are left with long-term neurological conditions, including personality changes or seizure disorders.
It was first identified in pigs in Malaysia and Singapore in the late 1980s, though it originally came from fruit bats.
The virus predominantly affects Bangladesh, where outbreaks occur almost every year.
Last year, between January 4 and February 13, a total of 11 cases of Nipah, including eight deaths, were reported in the country.
Other regions at risk of infection include Cambodia, Ghana, Indonesia, Madagascar and Thailand.
8. Rift Valley fever
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral disease primarily affecting domestic animals such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats.
But it can spread to humans via mosquitos or eating infected meat.
In humans, the disease ranges from a mild flu-like illness to severe haemorrhagic fever that can be lethal.
No human-to-human transmission of RVF has been documented.
9. Zika virus
Zika virus is mainly spread by mosquitoes in certain parts of the world, including South and Central America, the Caribbean, the Pacific islands, Africa and Asia.
Most people with Zika virus infection do not develop symptoms.
Those who do typically have symptoms including rash, fever, conjunctivitis, muscle and joint pain, malaise and headache that last for a few days.
Severe diseases requiring hospitalisation and deaths are uncommon.
Former chair of the UK vaccine taskforce, Kate Bingham, has expressed that the world may look back at the Covid-19 pandemic as a mere "walk in the park" in comparison to the potential severity of Disease X. Bingham highlighted the infectiousness and fatality rate of Disease X, likening it to being as infectious as measles with a fatality rate comparable to Ebola (67%).
The WHO has compiled a list of nine "priority pathogens" that pose the greatest public health risk due to their epidemic potential. Disease X was added to this list in 2018. While the exact nature of Disease X remains uncertain, scientists have pointed to bird flu as a likely contender for triggering the next human pandemic.
The nine known pathogens that global public health officials are keeping a vigilant eye on include:
- Ebola and Marburg
- Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
- Lassa fever
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS)
- Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2)
- Nipah
- Rift Valley fever
- Zika virus
Each of these pathogens presents unique challenges, with varying modes of transmission, symptoms, and fatality rates. The global community is grappling with the need for enhanced preparedness and collaborative efforts to mitigate the potential impact of Disease X or any other emerging infectious threat.
The WHO is expected to release an updated threat list in the first half of 2024, reflecting the ongoing commitment to monitoring and addressing emerging infectious diseases. As the world remains on high alert, health officials are emphasising the importance of immediate action, including financial investments, to prepare for and combat the next potential pandemic. The global community must unite in proactive measures to ensure a swift and effective response to any emerging health crisis.
1. Ebola and Marburg
Ebola and Marburg are severe and highly infectious viruses that come from bats and kill many they infect.
There have been several large outbreaks of both bugs in Africa over the last few years.
Both begin abruptly, with high fever and a severe headache.
Many patients develop severe haemorrhagic symptoms, including bleeding from bodily orifices, like the eyes, ears or internal organs.
On average, Ebola kills about 50 per cent of those it sickens, though case fatality rates have ranged from 25 per cent to 90 per cent, according to the WHO.
Marburg also kills around 50 per cent of those it infects, though case fatality rates range from around 24 per cent to 88 per cent, experts say.
People can get infected with Ebola or Marburg viruses if they touch or handle items that have been in contact with an infected person.
2. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a deadly tick-borne virus, endemic in places with warmer climates, such as Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East and Asia.
The disease, which is spread by ticks, kills up to 40 per cent of those who catch it, according to the WHO.
CCHF symptoms include fever, muscle ache, dizziness, light sensitivity and vomiting, and it can lead to organ failure and internal bleeding.
Scientists fear the disease could expand out of its usual territories and move towards Britain and France due to global warming.
3. Lassa fever
Lassa fever is an acute viral haemorrhagic illness which can lead to internal bleeding and affect multiple organ systems.
People usually contract the bug by being exposed to food or items covered in rat urine or faeces.
But it can also be spread through infected bodily fluids.
The virus - in the same family as Ebola, but not as deadly or infectious - has become endemic in a number of West African countries.
Most people with Lassa Fever make a full recovery, but some people can get severely ill.
Some people can experience a fever, physical fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, headaches, abdominal pains or sore throat.
It originated in the town of Lassa, northern Nigeria, which is its' namesake.
4. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory caused by the coronavirus, which also caused Covid-19.
Like other respiratory bugs such as flu and the common cold, SARS affects the airways in the lungs.
Symptoms can include a headache, body aches, mild respiratory symptoms, possible diarrhoea, an eventual dry cough, and pneumonia in most.
It's passed on through respiratory droplets produced when a person with the virus coughs or sneezes, or by contact with objects or surfaces containing the virus.
SARS showed how quickly infection can spread during its first reported outbreak in Asia in February 2003.
Over the next few months, the illness reached more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.
A total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick, and of these, 774 died.
Scientists say it is highly likely that the virus jumped from bats to cat-like civets before infecting humans.
A spillover could happen again.
5. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS)
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS), is a virus transmitted to humans via camels, hence the nickname, camel flu.
Most cases are reported in the Arabic world, but some have been discovered elsewhere - including one in the UK in 2018.
Its symptoms can range from mild to severe, including fever, cough, pneumonia and gastrointestinal issues.
The bugs kills about a third (35 per cent) of those infected, according to the WHO.
MERS was first identified by scientists in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and has since resulted in over 2,605 infections and 936 deaths.
6. Covid (SARS-CoV-2)
Coronavirus disease, or Covid-19, is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The first known case was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
The disease quickly spread worldwide, resulting in the Covid -9 pandemic, which led to at least seven million known deaths.
While the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) status was dropped in May 2023, WHO could always reinstate it if a new, more dangerous variant emerged.
Experts have recently warned the most recent variant, JN.1 could be the "biggest yet" due to several new mutations which make it better at spreading.
Most people infected with the virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness, much like flu or the common cold, and recover without requiring special treatment.
However, some will become seriously ill and require medical attention.
7. Nipah
Experts have warned that Nipah, a virus that spreads from fruit bats or livestock, could also be the next pandemic.
The bug inspired the blockbuster film Contagion about a global pandemic.
It attacks the brain, causing it to swell and has a fatality rate up to 75 per cent.
Of those who survive it, around 20 per cent are left with long-term neurological conditions, including personality changes or seizure disorders.
It was first identified in pigs in Malaysia and Singapore in the late 1980s, though it originally came from fruit bats.
The virus predominantly affects Bangladesh, where outbreaks occur almost every year.
Last year, between January 4 and February 13, a total of 11 cases of Nipah, including eight deaths, were reported in the country.
Other regions at risk of infection include Cambodia, Ghana, Indonesia, Madagascar and Thailand.
8. Rift Valley fever
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral disease primarily affecting domestic animals such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats.
But it can spread to humans via mosquitos or eating infected meat.
In humans, the disease ranges from a mild flu-like illness to severe haemorrhagic fever that can be lethal.
No human-to-human transmission of RVF has been documented.
9. Zika virus
Zika virus is mainly spread by mosquitoes in certain parts of the world, including South and Central America, the Caribbean, the Pacific islands, Africa and Asia.
Most people with Zika virus infection do not develop symptoms.
Those who do typically have symptoms including rash, fever, conjunctivitis, muscle and joint pain, malaise and headache that last for a few days.
Severe diseases requiring hospitalisation and deaths are uncommon.
