ESA Monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4 for Potential Earth Impact in 2032
General News
Yesterday
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The European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed that its Planetary Defence Office is closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first observed on 27 December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Initial calculations placed the asteroid on ESA's risk list due to a minor probability of impact.
"As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%. This result is consistent with independent estimates made by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS", the agency stated.
ESA has classified the asteroid as Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants attention. However, astronomers note that an asteroid’s impact probability can fluctuate, often rising before dropping to zero as additional data becomes available.
The asteroid is estimated to measure between 40 and 100 metres in diameter. If an object of this size were to impact Earth, it could cause severe damage to a local region. Historical data suggests that asteroids of this scale strike the planet approximately once every few thousand years.
Since its discovery, astronomers worldwide have been conducting high-priority follow-up observations to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. The asteroid's orbit is highly elongated, making it difficult to determine its precise path. It is currently moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, further complicating accurate measurements.
Over the coming months, 2024 YR4 will fade from view, but ESA plans to use increasingly powerful telescopes, including the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile, to gather as much data as possible before it becomes unobservable. If the asteroid disappears from view before scientists can rule out an impact, it will remain on ESA’s risk list until it is observed again in 2028.
Due to its size and impact probability, asteroid 2024 YR4 has activated two UN-endorsed asteroid response groups:
While asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 98.8% chance of safely passing Earth, further observations in the coming years will refine its projected path. If necessary, ESA and other international space agencies will work together on possible response measures.
For now, scientists stress that there is no immediate cause for alarm, but continued monitoring is essential. As asteroid survey technology improves, more objects will likely be detected, enabling earlier risk assessments and potential mitigation strategies.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first observed on 27 December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Initial calculations placed the asteroid on ESA's risk list due to a minor probability of impact.
"As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%. This result is consistent with independent estimates made by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS", the agency stated.
ESA has classified the asteroid as Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants attention. However, astronomers note that an asteroid’s impact probability can fluctuate, often rising before dropping to zero as additional data becomes available.
The asteroid is estimated to measure between 40 and 100 metres in diameter. If an object of this size were to impact Earth, it could cause severe damage to a local region. Historical data suggests that asteroids of this scale strike the planet approximately once every few thousand years.
Since its discovery, astronomers worldwide have been conducting high-priority follow-up observations to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. The asteroid's orbit is highly elongated, making it difficult to determine its precise path. It is currently moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, further complicating accurate measurements.
Over the coming months, 2024 YR4 will fade from view, but ESA plans to use increasingly powerful telescopes, including the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile, to gather as much data as possible before it becomes unobservable. If the asteroid disappears from view before scientists can rule out an impact, it will remain on ESA’s risk list until it is observed again in 2028.
Due to its size and impact probability, asteroid 2024 YR4 has activated two UN-endorsed asteroid response groups:
- The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN): Chaired by NASA, IAWN coordinates asteroid tracking efforts worldwide. It also helps develop strategies to assist governments in impact consequence analysis and potential mitigation planning.
- The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG): Chaired by ESA, SMPAG oversees international collaboration on space-based response strategies for near-Earth object threats. The group is set to meet in Vienna next week to discuss the asteroid. If its impact probability remains above 1%, SMPAG will provide recommendations to the United Nations and may begin evaluating spacecraft-based mitigation options.
While asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 98.8% chance of safely passing Earth, further observations in the coming years will refine its projected path. If necessary, ESA and other international space agencies will work together on possible response measures.
For now, scientists stress that there is no immediate cause for alarm, but continued monitoring is essential. As asteroid survey technology improves, more objects will likely be detected, enabling earlier risk assessments and potential mitigation strategies.
